The Aussie-Dollar spiked above 0.92 following the release of strong employment data. Will Thursday's risk trends reinforce the bullish move?

The US Dollar pulled back as global stock and oil prices recovered but the bearish technical setups created with yesterday’s selloff have not been invalidated, hinting the greenback remains poised to advance amid renewed risk aversion.

Student’s Question:Here's the support line. But I am still confused as to when should I enter the trade and when should I exit the trade according to the historic chart I posted?

The euro is weak across the board. In fact, the EURAUD is trading at a 19 year low and an objective is 1300 pips lower.

U.S. stocks posted their largest gain in nearly two months despite a report that the number of mortgage applications declined for the first time in six weeks.

Once again, we are left to qualify the sincerity of investor sentiment. Wednesday’s session brought a clear advance in the appetite for risk; but considering the lack of a distinct trend for equities, crude and even progress on gold, it seems traders are still waiting.

Intensely choppy forex market price action has made short-term US Dollar forecasts especially difficult, but evidence of sentiment extremes in the Japanese Yen suggests that the USDJPY may soon reverse. Forex futures positioning data shows that Non-commercial traders are near the most net-long the Japanese Yen (short USDJPY) since the USDJPY bottomed in late 2009.

The Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its current policy in September, and the British Pound could face increased volatility following the rate decision as investors weigh the prospects for future policy.

The AUD/CAD is looking to test trend line support following a 25 bps rate hike from the BoC, despite the central bank’s slightly lower outlook for growth.

Potential exists for a USDJPY reversal and strength up towards 8800-9000 before the longer term downtrend resumes.

For readers of the Daily Currency Focus, it should be no surprise that the dollar has continued to weaken. On Wednesday, we said that the actions by the Federal Reserve have cemented the downtrend in the U.S. dollar. Given how currency traders have responded to previous Quantitative Easing threats and announcements, the EUR/USD could realistically hit 1.40 (see charts). Although equities have given back its gains and bond yields have rallied, the moves in the currency and commodity markets indicate that the Fed’s actions will have a lasting impact on the financial markets. As we look forward to more dollar weakness, it is worthwhile to consider how a weaker dollar impacts the global economy.

Positive U.S. economic data is counteracting the strain that the swine flu and the initial results of stress tests are having on the currency markets.

Another night of risk aversion has lifted the yen to a six week high against the euro and a four week high against the buck as WHO raised the alert status of the swine flu crisis from 3 to 4. Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general for health security and environment noted that the increased threat level “signifies that we have taken a step closer to pandemic. It is also possible that as the situation evolves over the next few days we could move into Stage 5.”

Japan’s retail sales fell for a seventh consecutive month in March as weakening labor market prompted households to cut spending in a clear sign that Japan’s economy is seeing no evidence of a rebound in consumer demand. Sales declined by 3.9% earlier which was actually a bit better than the market consensus of a 4.7% drop, but despite the slightly better than forecast numbers, today’s retails sales data confirms the fact the world’s second largest economy remains mired in the worst economic slump in the post war era. Yesterday, the Japanese government forecast that the economy will shrink by 3.3% in 2009.

The lack of any meaningful U.S. economic data along with fear that the swine flu has the risk of turning into a global health crisis has caused investors to flock into the safety of the U.S. dollar. We have always said that when it comes to currencies, investors and traders always sell first and ask questions later.

The U.S. dollar has strengthened against all higher yielding currencies on the fear of a global health pandemic. A respiratory disease known as the swine flu is spreading across the globe.

The EUR/USD was lower by more than 100 points at the start of the week’s trade today, as fear of a spreading swine flu epidemic gripped global capital markets. Centered in Mexico, the swine flu outbreak has managed to kill more than 80 people, but the latest cases in US and Canada have not resulted in any further fatalities so far. Human to human infection of swine flu is spread through touch and sneezing and is treatable with antibiotics. Investors in Asia, still haunted by memories of SARS outbreak in 2003 were quick to react, selling high beta currencies while seeking refuge in the dollar and the yen.

The outbreak of swine flu triggered a wave of risk aversion in Asian currency trade today with the region especially concerned given its recent history with SARS virus. Health officials were on alert across the globe against the pandemic with Mexico acting as the epicenter of the disease while cases of the outbreak were confirmed in US and Canada.

The greenback faces broad selling today as risk tolerance improves along with equity rallies. The equity rallies were primarily fueled by the gradual uncovering of stress test details and upbeat earnings. The same story of components have been the major market driver for the entire week .Today however, we threw some new factors into the mix including some of the only relevant economic data to be released this week. Even though markets are still net losers since Monday, the voice of optimism is still clearly audible. The Dow today advanced by about 100 points. The dollar was stronger against the pound and yen, but lower against the euro, cad, aussie, and kiwi.

Less than expected decline in the Durable Goods Orders along with higher than projected new home sales added to optimism of a possible bottom in the economic downturn. U.S. New Home Sales fell 0.6% in March from 358,000 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 356,000. Nonetheless, overabundance of unsold new homes and competition from foreclosed properties situated a 12% drop in the median sales price from a year earlier to $201,400.

The euro rally continued in early European trade today after the IFO survey of business confidence handily beat expectations printing at 83.7 vs. consensus calls of 82.1. The IFO release was the third positive economic surprise from the EZ this week, following on the heels of better ZEW and PMI data numbers. As a result the EUR/USD has rallied more than 300 points off the week’s lows as short covering continue unabated.

The IFO survey of business expectations printed much better than expected confirming other data points from the Eurozone this week that showed a possible turn to the upside in the region’s economy. The IFO survey recorded a reading of 83.7 versus consensus expectations of 82.4. More importantly the Current Assessment figures improved to 83.6 from 82.7 the month prior.

This week’s primary influence has been deeply rooted in speculation over stress test results as well as the flood of earnings reports that, so far, indicate that profits are on the rise. These mixed signals have been too much for the Dow to bear. The index was sent back and forth between positive and negative territories. Within the last hour of the trading day, the Dow plummeted off of 60 point gains to end the day down more than 80. Nevertheless, the market may remain range bound until the entire earnings season has played out and all stress tests have been made public. Until this time we may be subject to a constrained trading pattern. The currency markets choose the pound to be the big loser of the day. Otherwise, the dollar rallied against the commodities currencies but fell against the yen and euro.

Global equities took a severe pounding in today’s trading. For the U.S., concerns over another wave of banking crises seem to take hold of investor’s sense of fear and uncertainty. The Dow was sent down more than 3.0%, while crude prices plummeted nearly 9.0% on the day. With economic data at a minimum for this week, the primary driver in the U.S. will remain to be the flood of corporate earnings. While news has been primarily promising thus far, many are still convinced that this will be the seventh consecutive monthly decline in corporate earnings. Accordingly, the standard risk adverse formation took shape in favor of dollar and yen strength. Crosses bared the brunt of the selling, sending AUD/JPY spiraling down by more than 4.5%.

Cautious optimism is the perfect catch phrase for today’s events. Things are getting better but it is unclear whether or not this is just a break in the storm, or the very beginnings of stabilization. The Federal Reserve seems to believe that we are a long ways off, while recent economic data and earnings reports are pointing toward stabilization. The Dow spent much of the day trying to find the answer to this unanswerable question. In the end, the bulls were barely able to maintain control. The euro and pounds got hammered in today’s session, losing more than 150 and 120 pips respectively. Surprisingly, dollar strength was not enough to keep USD/JPY from sinking further. Commodity currencies were mixed on the day.

In the first few months of 2009, volatility in the currency market has exploded. Surprisingly enough, this may be in line with seasonal trends.